Thursday,
February 19, 12:00 p.m. ECG 317
Istvan Szunyogh
Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
Texas A&M University
Predictability of the Performance of an Ensemble Weather Forecast
System
Abstract
The purpose of employing ensemble prediction systems in the practice of
numerical weather prediction is to predict the influence of the
spatiotemporal changes of atmospheric predictability on the forecasts. It is
often assumed that an ensemble prediction system should provide a closure of
the forecast problem and when an ensemble prediction fails it is usually
attributed to design flaws of the ensemble prediction system.
In this talk,
we argue that this view should be reconsidered by showing that the
performance of an ensemble prediction system itself is inherently flow
dependent. (We refer to this dependence as the predictability of the
ensemble performance.) In addition, we outline the theoretical foundation of
a practical approach to predict the performance of an ensemble prediction
system.
For further information please contact:
mittelmann@asu.edu